Sunday, 29 May 2016

Quantum Computing and Obsolescence

This thread started with a news about the new trends in 'Quantum computing', but as nobody knew much about it, the discussion went on the more familiar topic of obsolescence. 

Mohan Rao  
A whole class of new technologies based on Quantum Computing are making their debut into the commercial world, according to Canadian media. The head-on between Apple and the FBI recently reported might have something to do with it. Also, the statements made by PM Trudeau at Waterloo recently has made QC a cool topic to delve into. The widely used PKC (public key cryptography) so far the flagship method for protecting privacy by the industry and the governments may become obsolete in the face of fast-speed QCs. Cracking a code may become near-impossible. Quantum-resistant algorithms will likely replace the current PKC technologies on a large scale. The Communications Security Establishment (CSE) could break into current PKC protected info while used in a defensive posture. Currently IQC and MIT hold the world record for the most quantum used in experiments. The race seems to be on to build large-scale computers based on quantum bits.
Something to keep an eye on for the C&I people in our community.

S Dayal  
RTFP from the report given by you.
... might have something to do with ...
... may become obsolete ...
... will likely replace ...
Such statements express possibilities. Here people have dirtied their hands on hard core real stuff, during their tenure. They may be looking for real stuff.
I am not sure if there is even a basic quantum computer exists even in Labs.


Mohan Rao : 
Definite answers which you are seeking will take more research. I cannot stretch the words to make them more definitive.
Nor do I have the resources or expertise to go into these in more depth. The sending of this post is meant to let the community know something news-worthy they may be interested in, however sketchy, and I am sure people will not act on it without further investigations on its own even if it gets interested.


Ashok Malhotra: 
        My apprehensions about the QC are more basic, not a question to you.
         As I understand, the QCs are not O-I language based. Hence all the present set of programmes n works, developed with a monumental human effort over the last 40 years or more will either need to be transferred or worse, rewritten to QC programmes. Hope I am wrong.

You are NOT wrong. It can be worse.
All the knowledge I painstakingly developed by pouring over many textbooks like FETerman, Arguimbau and others, starting from Thermionic emission , wading through wonderful space charge, the grid of a triode, and many more grids later for many more special effects, all after my graduation and entry into service, in a short spell of 4/5 years
WERE ALL DOWN THE DRAIN, along with the numerous text books and technologies, after the sudden advent of transistors, to be  quickly replaced again by  FETs, integrated devices, microprocessors, multi processors and computers!
The wiring of circuits on  dirty tables  gave way to the white collar work in AC rooms of software!
That is Tech- Boom

S Dayal
For every idea or an object, there is a unique Bath Tub Curve.
Every Bath Tub, has to have a drain plug, for "Down The Drain"
Even this Universe is equipped to send the Cosmic Matter and Time, down the drain.  And that drain is called ...  Black Hole !

Ashok Malhotra :
    I can well imagine Sh Natarajan's pains.
       The "Redundancy" of any kind, be it Man Powers, Trainings, Technology deployed, Education, Industrial Hardware n Software , Service tools et al is today a big threat to an Organisation's Economy.
      Though in the Management parlance, they talk of "threats n opportunities" scenarios to the Projects, I don't think a due importance is given to these factors. In the last 10 yrs, even a simple household TV has become Redundant 5 times, from CRT to Plasma to single chip to LCD to LED to OLED n what not.
   With all this, can any one say that the 85 yrs life scenario of a NPP,  is not a day dream?
     Shortly we will have the "Plant lives" defined on the basis of "Redundancy Factors" or at least discounted there of.

Mohan Rao :
Malhotra Saab and Natarajan Saab: Both of you are right on. It seems to be the story with all of human journeys, the only difference now being that change is occuring at a much faster speed (a point made, if I recall right, in a book called “Future Shock” by Alvin Toeffler a few decades ago). In the old, slower mode, we have methods used for communication: memorization, then scripts and writing, papyrus for recording, calligraphic writing, fonts, paper and typewriters, printing, explosion of books and literature; in the fast mode we have recording on tape, discs, DVDs, audio books, radio, television, movies, videos, computers and cloud storage, and in the works, we have DNA storage, and now quantum computers. Re Malhotra Saab’s Q, we are at the very beginning talking of a handful Q bits with IQC and MIT and there is long way to go to build large scale computers. Hopefully with the pace of modern technology, it may be a matter of a few years before they develop, and not a very long time (my guess!). Similarly, we can see inventions and their obsolescence in the development of arms from sticks, bows and arrows to thermonuclear weapons and other types of WMDs, in the development of transportation from carrying on human shoulders and head to wheels and in the faster mode we have automobiles, navigation, air flights, space travel, rockets and missiles etc. The human journey will probably go on unless we take the wrong turn in our travel with  intolerance and hatred, wars, and mutual destruction with genocide, nuclear and other holocausts etc, not including whatever else can happen in terms of epidemics, ecological destruction and natural events of astronomical magnitude (asteroid impact e.g.).

Ashok Malhotra :
   The QC are a different ball game in more ways than one. The Computers today are deployed in ways that are mathematical, where an algorithm/s can be written. They are supposed to give the same result every time.
    The QCs, I am afraid, like the QM, will give possibilities not the solutions, that may vary with each run, as the space-time Qantas can't be repeated. This is my understanding though. Thanks.

Ravinder Mago:
The progression of TVs you are referring to  is definitively not REDUNDANCY but obsolescence.

Ashok Malhotra :
Yes, for "TV technology", the word is obsolete (no longer in use), though an obsolete item may continue to be used as a standby or redundantly  
   I used the word "redundant" (superfluous-more than required) for humans, as obsolete can't be used.

Shah Nawaz Ahmad :
ECIL introduced TV< B&W in India
Keltron made it a cottage industry
Then whoosh both disappeared from the market and we were none the poorer
Cheer up!!


 Dayal :
Initially B&W TVs were designed in India.  Keltron also followed the same.
Subsequently TVs Cards were imported and they were assembled in India.  Commonly known as "Screw Driver Technology".
Samtel (in Hindi it was Sam Tal, meaning plain surface) could develop B&W picture tube.  This brought down the cost of TV and computer monitors.  But Samtel, tried to develop color picture tube and became financially unviable.
Rest is all history.

S Dayal :
Even several hundreds of students trained by me, have surpassed my knowledge and intelligence, and they are still further ahead of me, in many more areas of knowledge.
Well, that is the way every society grows.
I still regard you (Shri Ahmad) as an outstanding lighthouse of experience and wisedom.

There is an excellent Sher.
I am not sure if it fits in or not.
It goes like ...
Kadra Daan, Hamare Gulam,
Be Kadron Ke Hum Gulaam

Anand Ghare  (myself):
All of us have struggled very hard to get some things or reach somewhere and found subsequently that it became worth less due to changes in technology, life styles or obsolescence. But still we feel happy in fondly remembering those days because we thoroughly enjoyed them. It means we got more in return than what we gave during that time period.
We should also understand that what we have today is because what was there yesterday and will be the reason for what we may see tomorrow.
QC may bring a whole new world, but somebody will surely build bridges between old and new worlds for making the change painless, if it has to really happen.

K.Natarajan :
Observations on Mohan Rao's quantum computers.
'The quantum computing and the advanced algorithms of C&I people are rendered irrelevant  and thrown into dustbins by the fast advancing BIOCOMPUTERS.'
THIS IS WHAT YOU WOULD READ AS  NEWS, maybe just a decade from now!
Technology storm and rate of obsolescence, particularly in electronics, is mind boggling.
The mysteries of biotechnology have always been a challenge to thinking people, and the area, along with  nanotechnology, biophysics/chemistry/engineering  are being dug, deep and wide  and electrons will be swept aside  by DNA, proteins, nurons and what not as computing base, with the emergence of Biocomputers!
Maybe our worries on energy conundrum will also be history with Fusion reactors operating!
Imagination run riot!


No comments:

Post a Comment